A betting strategy with a certain return exists. It’s called sure betting or also arbitrage betting. Even betting on sure bets (surebets) has its negatives, and unfortunately, they outweigh the positives.
Sure Betting (Arbitrage Betting)
One of the most famous websites offering surebets is oddsportal.com (source: oddsportal.com)
Surebetting or arbitrage betting (translated as “betting on certainty”) is the name of a betting strategy that, when used correctly, guarantees a certain profit no matter how the match ends. It is thus the only known form of betting that will definitely earn you money. However, like any other strategy, it has its flaws. In practice, it is also difficult to implement. You can learn more in our article.
Example of a sure bet
The essence of arbitrage betting is to find such odds on opposing tips that, with proportional distribution of the stake, will bring you a certain profit. For this, you need to look for opportunities with a coefficient below 100. The surebet coefficient is calculated as follows:
- Coefficient for an event with two possibilities: (100 / odds A) + (100 / odds B)
- Coefficient for an event with three possibilities: (100 / odds A) + (100 / odds B) + (100 / odds C)
To give you a concrete idea of how a sure bet can look in practice, we provide a model example with imaginary odds for a football match between Sparta and Slavia.
- Bet on the OVER 2.5 – UNDER 2.5 market
- Odds on OVER 2.5: 2.15 (Tipsport)
- Odds on UNDER 2.5: 2.03 (22BET)
- Coefficient calculation: (100 / 2.15) + (100 / 2.03) = 46.51 + 49.26 = 95.77
- If we invested 100 Kč (€5) in this surebet, we would distribute the stakes as follows (calculated using a calculator): 48.56 Kč (€2) on OVER 2.5 = win of 104.40 Kč (€5); 51.44 Kč (€2) on UNDER 2.5 = win of 104.42 Kč (€5). No matter how the bet turns out, we will be in profit.
- Bet on the 1 – X – 2 market
- Odds on 1: 3.30 (Betano)
- Odds on X: 3.50 (FEZbet)
- Odds on 2: 2.70 (SUPRABETS)
- Coefficient calculation: (100 / 3.30) + (100 / 3.50) + (100 / 2.70) = 30.30 + 28.57 + 37.04 = 95.91
- If we invested 100 Kč (€5) in this surebet, we would distribute the stakes as follows: 31.59 Kč (€1) on home team = win of 104.25 Kč (€5); 29.79 Kč (€1) on draw = win of 104.26 Kč (€5); 38.62 Kč (€2) on away team = win of 104.27 Kč (€5). No matter how the bet turns out, we will be in profit.
How to find a sure bet?
In today’s era of rapid drops and constant odds changes, it is impossible to search for surebets manually. Fortunately for so-called arbers, or bettors who focus on surebetting, there are several websites and programs that monitor odds and search for potential arbs. With their help, this tactic can be used much more effectively. Even so, they cannot protect you from the potential risks associated with arbitrage betting.
- Free surebet monitoring websites: www.oddsportal.com/sure-bets/; www.betburger.com/arbs; oddspedia.com/surebets
- Paid programs: www.trefik.cz; www.arbmate.com; oddsjam.com
Surebet calculator
Just as laborious as finding surebets themselves would be manually calculating the stake you need to bet to maximize your return from the arb. Useful tools can help with this too, specifically the surebet calculator. In a simple calculator, you just need to enter the odds values and the stake amount you want to bet, and the calculator will do the rest for you.
Advantages and disadvantages
Advantages
- guaranteed profit, no matter the result
- tens to hundreds of surebets daily
- easy work with a calculator that calculates everything for you
Disadvantages
- need to have high capital spread across as many sportsbooks as possible
- ability to quickly move bankroll between different companies (electronic wallets like Skrill and Neteller can help)
- bookmaker limits – not every bookmaker will let you bet as much as you need to create a surebet, which you won’t know in advance
- quick odds changes – you may not have time to bet on the opportunity at the required odds that create a surebet
- if you don’t bet with professional bookmakers that are friendly to arbers (Sportmarket), you’ll sooner or later be banned because they will uncover you
- different rules for ticket evaluation – e.g., one bookmaker may pay out the win in case of a tennis match scratch, another may only return the stake
Best bookmakers
1. |
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SportunaBonus: €100 on first deposit |
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2. |
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MostBetBonus: €320 on first deposit |
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3. |
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22BETBonus: €120 on first deposit |
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4. |
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20BETBonus: €100 on first deposit |
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5. |
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SportmarketBonus: €100 on first deposit |
Frequently asked questions
1️⃣ What is a surebet?
A surebet is a bet that will bring you profit no matter how it turns out. Simply put, you’re betting on an opposing event. The point is to bet on the opportunity at odds and amounts that guarantee you a profit.2️⃣ Are there websites that will alert me to a surebet, or do I have to search manually?
Manual surebet searching would take too much time and wouldn’t be worth it. However, there are many websites that offer current surebets via API.
Michael Cermak
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